da
http://havocjack.blogspot.it/2011/05/markov-chains.html
The solution is to use Markov chains. It's a way of diagramming out these sequences of probabilistic events. Here, let me show you one:
Russian Roulette; a classicer example there isn't. Every time you spin your chamber you've got a one in six chance of finding the bullet with your name on it. As long as you don't, you stay in the alive state, once you do, you transfer to the dead state. Once you're dead, you don't go back to the alive state. Unless you're Hindu. And right. But back on track here, you can set up a matrix with representations of your states and the probability of transfer from one to the next, and use that matrix to answer questions. Questions like "How long will I keep spinning this damn revolver before something interesting happensì" Or more germane to the blog, questions like "If I invade Siam, will I win the battle and how many guys will I have left over afterwardsì" That's the sort of answer that can help you win games.
mi sono sentito male
@Leyia